Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.030817 0.035066 0.039709 0.045161 0.051393 0.058300 0.066544
2025-02-09 0.024692 0.030604 0.037652 0.046690 0.057997 0.071710 0.089653
2025-02-16 0.020666 0.027120 0.035278 0.046379 0.061144 0.080181 0.106713
2025-02-23 0.018051 0.024820 0.033794 0.046615 0.064549 0.088876 0.124606
2025-03-02 0.015784 0.022588 0.031986 0.045987 0.066444 0.095440 0.140015
2025-03-09 0.014435 0.021413 0.031415 0.046892 0.070417 0.105123 0.160741
2025-03-16 0.012955 0.019848 0.030062 0.046417 0.072180 0.111588 0.177177
2025-03-23 0.012182 0.019241 0.030032 0.047877 0.076954 0.122986 0.202411
2025-03-30 0.010856 0.017620 0.028256 0.046365 0.076787 0.126472 0.215048
2025-04-06 0.009893 0.016478 0.027112 0.045725 0.077915 0.132070 0.231681
2025-04-13 0.008845 0.015087 0.025422 0.043980 0.076954 0.133981 0.241983
2025-04-20 0.008500 0.014852 0.025631 0.045496 0.081767 0.146276 0.272118
2025-04-27 0.008161 0.014607 0.025824 0.047042 0.086866 0.159727 0.306195
2025-05-04 0.007834 0.014356 0.025984 0.048545 0.092048 0.173875 0.343287
2025-05-11 0.007279 0.013632 0.025215 0.048228 0.093724 0.181534 0.368401
2025-05-18 0.006855 0.013111 0.024770 0.048473 0.096492 0.191537 0.399322
2025-05-25 0.006359 0.012406 0.023913 0.047819 0.097383 0.197859 0.423215
2025-06-01 0.006095 0.012132 0.023859 0.048762 0.101610 0.211359 0.463972
2025-06-08 0.005695 0.011548 0.023141 0.048267 0.102765 0.218533 0.491563
2025-06-15 0.005536 0.011443 0.023376 0.049787 0.108372 0.235752 0.543801
2025-06-22 0.005087 0.010692 0.022219 0.048213 0.107035 0.237615 0.560570
2025-06-29 0.004760 0.010176 0.021509 0.047546 0.107652 0.243881 0.588454
2025-07-06 0.004360 0.009467 0.020332 0.045729 0.105460 0.243497 0.600073